Our Research

TPE staff contribute to academic research in transport and economics. Detailed information on our research projects and publications is provided below.

Valuing travel time and reliability from emerging connected vehicle data

Isaac Mann, David M. Levinson (2024), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100427

The value of travel time and reliability are significant economic parameters in canonical transport Cost–Benefit Analysis. Our study employs connected vehicle data paired with Sydney, Australia’s, extensive toll road network to introduce a novel approach to valuing these metrics. Toll uptake makes the time–money trade-off explicit: travellers pay to avoid congestion. While toll choices have long been used to infer time valuation, a network-wide approach incorporating passive revealed preferences has not yet been explored. We design choice sets using methods termed route ‘observation’ and ‘generation’, and estimate time and reliability valuations using mixed-path size logit. Our findings align closely with official estimates used in project appraisal, and set the stage for panel revealed preference studies as connected vehicles occupy more of the vehicle fleet.

Access-based cost-benefit analysis

Isaac Mann, David M. Levinson (2024), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.103952

Current methods of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) for transport investments rely on travel-time savings for potential users. This approach presents a consistent and significant historical trend of forecast inaccuracy, and thus has been questioned and criticized. Access, or the ease of reaching valued destinations, can be used as an alternative. Access features a strong correlation with land value which can be measured through hedonic analysis, and subsequently, access gains offered by a transport initiative can be monetised via property uplift. We test this hypothesis and evaluate Sydney's South West Metro Link (SWML).

We first develop linear and semi-log ordinary least square hedonic pricing models for house sales in the Sydney region. The models are set up with structural and neighbourhood attributes in addition to access measures, and result in a statistically significant fit.

Next, we model changes to job access induced by the SWML. Benefits are then quantified by land value uplift and are estimated at $1.87 Billion in 2031 and between $1.53–$3.08 Billion in 2061, which reflect base and transit-oriented development (TOD) scenarios.

The project is thus feasible should certain land use and economic conditions be met, including TOD to occur about station localities by 2061 and if project costs are minimal. Although limitations are noted, access-based CBA exhibits significant promise as an alternative approach to appraisal and has direct application in value capture strategy.